Bill Buxton has an interesting article in Business Week called "The Long Nose of Innovation."
Any technology that is going to have significant impact over the next 10 years is already at least 10 years old... Here's the message to be heeded: Innovation is not about alchemy. In fact, innovation is not about invention. An idea may well start with an invention, but the bulk of the work and creativity is in that idea's augmentation and refinement.